利率市场化作为中国金融改革的重要环节,对农村商业银行盈利能力有深远影响。文章基于2013~2023年48家农村商业银行面板数据,构建固定效应模型,分析其影响及作用机制。研究表明:利率市场化显著提升农村商业银行盈利能力,但通过增加资金成本波动和存款不稳定性,降低流动性比率,对盈利能力有负向影响。异质性分析发现,不同所有制及上市状态银行受益程度存在差异,上市和非国有银行受益更多。基于此,文章提出对应政策建议,为农村商业银行可持续发展提供理论与实践参考。As an important part of China’s financial reform, interest rate liberalization has a profound impact on the profitability of rural commercial banks. This paper uses panel data from 48 rural commercial banks from 2013 to 2023 to build a fixed effects model and analyze its impact and mechanism. The research shows that rate liberalization significantly enhances profitability, but it also increases the volatility of funding costs and deposit instability, thereby lowering the liquidity ratio, which has a negative impact. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that banks with different ownership and listing statuses benefit to varying degrees, with listed and non-state-owned banks benefiting more. Based on this, corresponding policy suggestions are proposed to provide theoretical and practical references for the sustainable development of rural commercial banks.
本文选取我国16家商业银行2014~2023年的数据作为样本,构建固定效应模型分析第三方支付对商业银行盈利能力的影响效应、异质性及传导机制。结果表明,第三方支付带来的竞争效应占主导地位,对于商业银行的整体盈利能力存在抑制作用,并且对非国有银行的影响更为显著;另外,机制分析表明,第三方支付主要是通过挤占信贷市场,导致商业银行利差收入缩窄,进而影响其盈利能力。未来应高度重视第三方支付带来的冲击,同时进一步引导银行加强与第三方支付的合作,提升自身创新能力水平,实现互利共赢。In this paper, the data of 16 commercial banks in China from 2014 to 2023 are selected as samples to build a fixed-effect model to analyze the influence effect, heterogeneity and transmission mechanism of third-party payment on the profitability of commercial banks. The results show that the competitive effect brought by third-party payment dominates, suppresses the overall profitability of commercial banks, and has more significant influence on non-state-owned banks. In addition, the mechanism analysis shows that the third-party payment mainly shrinks the spread income by squeezing the credit market, thus affecting their profitability. In the future, we should attach great importance to the impact of payment brought by third-party payment, and further guide banks to strengthen cooperation with third-party payment, improve their innovation ability, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.
