The probability distributions of the critical threshold chloride concentration Ccr, the chloride diffusion coefficient D, and the surface chloride concentration Cs are determined based on the collected natural exposure data, and the probability estimation of reinforcement depassivation in concrete is presented using Monte-Carlo simulation. From sensitivity analysis of mean value for ccr, cs, and D on the depassivation probability of reinforcement, it is found that ccr, cs, and D respectively has the greatest, smaller, and the lowest effect on the probability of depassivation. Finally the effect of stress state of concrete on the reinforcement depassivation probability is analyzed. It is found that the influence of stress state becomes apparent as exposure time increases.
