System theory,pressure-state-response and drivingpressure-state-impact-response model have been applied to establishing China's dynamic tracking evaluation system of natural resources security in this article.Based on analytic hierarchy process and Delphi methods,the natural resources security situation has been evaluated systematically from 1991 to 2007.The result showed that the overall level of China's natural resources security presented a downtrend from 1991 to 2007.The basic reasons are the pressure indicators such as population,GDP,natural resources trade increased gradually,resulting in tension and fragility of natural resources security.
The mineral resources exploitation stage and the economic growth rate are various in different regions of Xinjiang Autonomous region. Using the method of location quotient, this paper identifies and classifies the intensive regions of three types of mineral resources, known as coal, oil and natural gas, respectively. The intensive regions of economic growth were also identified, according to the rate of per capita GDP growth at prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city. The relationships between different mineral resources and economic growth are different, for example, the relationship between economic growth and coal resource is positive, while the relationship between economic growth and oil resource, or natural gas resource is negative. This study empirically examines the effects of natural resources on economic growth of Xinjiang. The results show that whilst natural resources have a positive impact on growth, and can make a negative impact on growth through the transmission channels, such as investment, manufacture, human capital, and scientific and technologic innovation. Moreover, it studies the transmission channels, that is, the effect of natural resources on the other explanatory variables, and calculates the indirect effect of natural resources on growth for each transmission channel, and comprehensive effects of natural resources on growth. The calculated result of comprehensive effects indicates that the positive direct effects of natural resources on growth are shown to outweigh the negative indirect effect of Xinjiang autonomous region.
