Aiming at the deficiency of the robustness of thermal error compensation models of CNC machine tools,the mechanism of improving the models' robustness is studied by regarding the Leaderway-V450 machining center as the object. Through the analysis of actual spindle air cutting experimental data on Leaderway-V450 machine,it is found that the temperature-sensitive points used for modeling is volatility, and this volatility directly leads to large changes on the collinear degree among modeling independent variables. Thus, the forecasting accuracy of multivariate regression model is severely affected, and the forecasting robustness becomes poor too. To overcome this effect, a modeling method of establishing thermal error models by using single temperature variable under the jamming of temperature-sensitive points' volatility is put forward. According to the actual data of thermal error measured in different seasons, it is proved that the single temperature variable model can reduce the loss of forecasting accuracy resulted from the volatility of temperature-sensitive points, especially for the prediction of cross quarter data, the improvement of forecasting accuracy is about 5 lm or more. The purpose that improving the robustness of the thermal error models is realized, which can provide a reference for selecting the modeling independent variable in the application of thermal error compensation of CNC machine tools.
