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国家重点基础研究发展计划(2004CB18300)

作品数:3 被引量:40H指数:3
相关作者:张立凤关吉平更多>>
相关机构:解放军理工大学更多>>
发文基金:国家重点基础研究发展计划国家自然科学基金国家重点实验室开放基金更多>>
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基于增长模繁殖法的集合预报试验被引量:14
2006年
利用微机版本的T63L9全球谱模式,首先进行了用增长模繁殖法(BGM)制作集合预报的方案设计,然后用确定的方案进行了中期数值预报的集合预报试验。繁殖循环的初始扰动为T63L9谱模式各层24h预报的均方根误差乘随机数,该随机数服从[-1,+1]区间上的均匀分布,繁殖循环每12h 1次,繁殖循环的周期为3d,集合成员为9个。结果表明:在1~8d的预报中,集合预报可以比控制预报的时效延长1d,集合预报无论是距平相关系数还是预报均方根误差都明显优于控制预报,集合预报对形势场的预报较控制预报更为接近实况分析场。
关吉平张立凤
关键词:中期数值预报增长模繁殖法
A Simulation Study of the Mesoscale Convective Systems Associated with a Meiyu Frontal Heavy Rain Event被引量:16
2009年
In this study, evolution of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) within a Meiyu front during a particularly heavy rainfall event on 22 June 1999 in East China was simulated by using a nonhydrostatic numerical model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System). Investigations were conducted with emphasis on the impact of the interaction among multi-scale weather systems (MWSs) on the development of MCSs in the Meiyu frontal environment. For this case, the development of MCSs experienced three different stages. (1) The convections associated with MCSs were firstly triggered by the eastward-moving Southwest Vortex (SWV) from the Sichuan Basin, accompanying the intensification of the upper-level jet (ULJ) and the low-level jet (LLJ) that were approaching the Meiyu front. (2) Next, a low-level shear line (LSL) formed, which strengthened and organized the MCSs after the SWV decayed. Meanwhile, the ULJ and LLJ enhanced and produced favorable conditions for the MCSs development. (3) Finally, as the MCSs got intensified, a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), a mesoscale LLJ and a mesoscale ULJ were established. Then a coupled-development of MWSs was achieved through the vertical frontal circulations, which further enhanced the MCV and resulted in the heavy rainfall. This is a new physical mechanism for the formation of Meiyu heavy rainfall related to the SWV during the warm season in East China. In the three stages of the heavy rainfall, the vertical frontal circulations exhibited distinguished structures and played a dynamic role, and they enhanced the interaction among the MWSs. A further examination on the formation and evolution of the MCV showed that the MCV was mainly caused by the latent heat release of the MCSs, and the positive feedback between the MCSs and MCV was a key characteristic of the scale interaction in this case.
张进谈哲敏
Impact of 4DVAR Assimilation of Rainfall Data on the Simulation of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in a Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall Event被引量:10
2007年
The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model (MM5) and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation (4DVAR) system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales. Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.
储可宽谈哲敏Ming XUE
关键词:4DVAR
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