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国家自然科学基金(41175125)

作品数:5 被引量:42H指数:3
相关作者:丑洁明董文杰更多>>
相关机构:北京师范大学中央民族大学更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划更多>>
相关领域:天文地球农业科学经济管理环境科学与工程更多>>

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Carbon Reduction Policies: A Regional Comparison of Their Contributions to CO_2 Abatement in Six Carbon Trading Pilot Schemes in China
2015年
The contributions of carbon reduction policies were evaluated and compared for six carbon trading pilot schemes in China, in four municipalities(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) and two provinces(Guangdong and Hubei). The carbon emissions accounting method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to calculate the actual CO2 and the support vector machine model was used to predict CO2. Chinese carbon reduction policies abated CO2 in the six carbon trading pilot schemes after the comprehensive policies came into force. However, the contribution of policies to CO2 abatement varied among regions, and the effect of carbon reduction policy on municipality pilot schemes was greater than on provincial pilot schemes. The largest contribution of carbon reduction policy to CO2 abatement was 28.3%, for the pilot carbon trading scheme in Beijing, and the smallest contribution was 3.7%, for that in Hubei. It is crucial to consider "carbon leakage" and a carbon trading linking program in order to evaluate the effects of carbon reduction policies.
XIU Jin-FengCHOU Jie-MingDONG Wen-JieYANG Zhi-YongDAI Ru-Feng
关键词:交易计划
中国关于气候变化归因和责任的研究进展与展望被引量:10
2013年
首先对2000~2011年中国关于气候变化归因和责任研究的相关文献进行分类统计,归纳总结了中国最近十余年的研究进展,在此基础上,对于现阶段研究及存在的问题进行了初步讨论。提出我国在气候变化归因与责任领域研究的基本框架和大体趋势已经确立,"气候变化原因"研究,应在强化多方全面研究和改进研究工具的同时,注重人为原因的探究,将人为原因的探究作为今后研究的重点方向;气候变化责任的研究,应在坚持"共同但有区别责任"立场的前提下,寻求更有力的技术支持,特别是需要构建"全球有序应对气候变化"的研究体系,开展更为全面的地球系统科学模拟研究。
张轶鸥丑洁明董文杰
关键词:气候变化
气候变化对我国农作物宜播种面积的影响被引量:22
2014年
基于气候条件与农作物熟制的相互关系,得到农作物潜在播种面积,分析气候变化对我国农作物播种面积的影响和其他因子对其综合作用。结果表明:我国实际播种面积增长缓慢,空间差异明显,华中实际播种面积占比最大而新疆最小,西南、华中、东北和新疆实际播种面积增加,西北、华南、华东和华北减少;在≥10℃积温指标下,1986—2009年我国潜在的不可耕地面积平均值相对1961—1985年减少约34.33%,一年一熟区面积有所减少,但仍占约50%,一年两熟和一年三熟地区面积均呈增加趋势;综合≥10℃和≥0℃两个积温指标,我国潜在播种面积缓慢增长,与实际播种面积的变化趋势一致,其他综合因子则在总体上对潜在播种面积的增长有徽弱抑制作用。
付雨晴丑洁明董文杰
关键词:气候变化积温熟制农作物
气候变化对中国经济系统的影响及评估方法评述被引量:7
2013年
基于经济学的视角,通过搜集气候变化对经济系统各方面的影响与评估方法研究的相关文献,发现我国气候显著的区域特征、经济系统的复杂性,导致我国不同地区、不同行业受到气候变化影响的因素和程度皆有所不同。目前研究气候变化经济影响的方法主要有以模型为依据的经验统计法、自然机理法和经济机理法以及其他非模型法。经济机理法是本文研究方法的分析重点,主要有成本效益法、生产函数法和均衡分析法。通过评价发现,经济机理法研究气候变化经济影响的局限性在于模型的动态模拟和对气候变化的长期预估能力,这两方面亟需改进。
付雨晴丑洁明董文杰
关键词:气候变化经济系统
Responses of Grassland and Forest to Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Northeast China被引量:3
2012年
Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of vegetation growth, we explored the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of five vegetation biomes in Northeast China, including typical steppe, desert steppe, meadow steppe, deciduous coniferous forest and deciduous broad-leaved forest during the period 1982-2009. The results indicate that growing season precipitation may be the primary vegetation growth-limiting factor in grasslands. More than 70% of the temporal variations in NDVI can be explained by the amount of precipitation during the growing season in typical and desert steppes. During the same period, the mean temperature in the growing season could explain nearly 43% of the variations in the mean growing season NDVI and is therefore a dominant growth-limiting factor for forest ecosystems. Therefore, the NDVI trends differ largely due to differences in the vegetation growth-limiting factors of the different vegetation biomes. The NDVI responses to droughts vary in magnitude and direction and depend on the drought-affected areas of the five vegetation types. Specifically, the changes in NDVI are consistent with the variations in precipitation for grassland ecosystems. A lack of precipitation resulted in decreases in NDVI, thereby reducing vegetation growth in these regions. Conversely, increasing precipitation decreased the NDVI of forest ecosystems. The results also suggest that grasslands under arid and semi-arid environments may be more sensitive to drought than forests under humid environments. Among grassland ecosystems, desert steppe was most sensitive to drought, followed by typical steppe; meadow steppe was the least sensitive.
彭静董文杰袁文平张勇
关键词:典型草原平均温度草原生态系统
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