结合有效的水文预报信息对水库群优化调度在流域防洪与兴利效益之间的权衡具有指导意义。然而,水文预报信息的不确定性是防洪调度的主要风险源,故需要在水库群优化调度研究中考虑预见期–余留期两阶段的风险控制方法。本文针对两阶段方法在水库群汛期优化调度中的运用问题,构建以发电效益最大为目标函数的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型,应用于澧水流域江垭、皂市水库群系统,研究结果表明:1) 通过考虑两阶段防洪风险约束,江垭和皂市水库坝前最高水位分别降低了1.37 m、2.63 m,优化调度方案有效降低了下游断面防洪风险;2) 在防洪风险可控的前提下,将水库群主汛期的发电量提高了11.59%。Combining effective hydrological forecast information is a guiding principle for optimal scheduling of reservoir complexes in terms of trade-offs between basin flood control and utilization benefits. Since the uncertainty of hydrological forecast information is the main source of flood control risk, it is necessary to consider the two-phase risk control method of foreseeable period and residual period in the study of optimal reservoir scheduling. This paper addresses the use of two-stage approach in real-time optimal scheduling of reservoir group flood season, and constructs a dynamic control model of reservoir group flood season operating water level with maximum power generation benefit as the objective function for Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoir group system in Lishui River Basin. The results show that: 1) by considering two-stage flood risk constraints, the maximum water levels of Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoirs are reduced by 1.37 m and 2.63 m, respectively. The optimal dispatching scheme effectively reduces the flood control risk of the downstream section;2) under the premise of controllable flood control risk, the power generation during the main flood season is increased by 11.59%.
沅江流域水资源丰富,通过水库群联合优化调度能够发挥较大潜力。本文根据沅江流域特性,以最大削峰准则为目标,考虑最大下泄流量、水电机组最大出力、生态基流等约束条件,构建了沅江流域水库群防洪调度模型。在保证水库工程安全的前提下,进行了不同洪水条件下的联合防洪调度研究。研究结果表明,相比于常规调度,优化调度具有以下优势:1) 在调度期动用等量防洪库容的情况下,托口、凤滩和五强溪水库的削峰率分别增加了15.4%、22.8%和14.7%;2) 优化调度最高水位低于常规调度最高水位,既有效保障了下游防洪安全,也减轻了水库上游城镇农田的淹没损失,实现了防洪效益的最大化。Yuanjiang River basin is rich in water resources, which can be maximumly used through joint optimization of reservoir group scheduling. In this paper, a flood control scheduling model of reservoirs in the Yuan River basin was constructed according to the characteristics of the basin, taking the maximum peak reduction criterion as the objective and considering the constraints such as maximum discharge flow, maximum output of hydropower units, and ecological base flow. Under the premise of ensuring the safety of the reservoir projects, a joint flood control scheduling study was carried out under different flood conditions. The results show that compared with the conventional dispatching, the joint and optimal dispatching has the following advantages: 1) The peak-clipping rate of the Tuokou, Fengtan and Wuqiangxi Reservoirs have increased 15.4%, 22.8% and 14.7%, respectively, when an equal amount of flood control storage capacity is utilized during the dispatching period;2) The maximum water levels of the optimized dispatching are lower than that of conventional dispatching, which can effectively guarantee the safety of downstream flood control and reduce the inundation loss of farmland in the upstream of the reservoirs, thus achieve the maximization of flood
