根据碳达峰、碳中和目标要求以及优化调整运输结构,推动大宗物资“公转铁”工作方案,综合考虑煤炭“公转铁”过程中运输、转运、装卸、存储子系统以及转运率、装卸能力、采购与消耗速率等因素对煤炭运输全过程碳排放量的影响,构建了基于碳排放的煤炭“公转铁”运输方案的系统动力学模型。从系统角度出发,定量地研究不同变量变动后,煤炭“公转铁”运输所产生的碳排放量,同时以陕西省2024年政府工作报告等文件为基础,设计优化情景并进行仿真模拟。根据仿真结果,对转运率进行优化后减碳率达40.67%,是减碳效率最高的因素,同时对全因素优化后减碳率达52.95%。研究表明,运输环节在煤炭运输减碳过程中有较大优化空间,增加转运率与投资额对于减碳量的影响具有边际效应,过度追求缩短发货时间会导致碳排放总量的增加。因此,各地区应当权衡经济效益、运输能力与各因素减少碳排放的效果,根据本地实际情况进行统筹考虑,以确定降低煤炭运输碳排放量的有效方针。In accordance with the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, as well as the need to optimize and adjust the transportation structure, we have developed a work plan to promote the “road to rail” transport of bulk materials. This plan comprehensively considers various factors affecting carbon emissions throughout the entire coal transportation process, including transportation, transshipment, loading and unloading, and storage subsystems, as well as transfer rates, loading and unloading capacities, and procurement and consumption rates. A system dynamics model for coal “road to rail” transportation based on carbon emissions has been constructed. From a systemic perspective, we quantitatively examined the carbon emissions generated by coal “road to rail” transportation following changes in different variables. Based on documents such as the Shaanxi Province
